2018 Predictions

As we build up to the Masters, the question on everybody’s lips is – who will be this year's champion? We’ve made our prediction by benchmarking the favourites for this year’s tournament against the average statistics of a Masters winner.

Average stats of a Masters champion

SCORE
280
vs PAR
-8
MARGIN OF VICTORY
3
1
Eagles
17
Birdies
45
Pars
9
Bogeys
0
Double Bogeys
PERFORMANCE STATS
Avg. Drive 276.7
Fairways Hit 79%
GIR 68%
No. of Putts 114
PERSONAL STATS
Age (when won) 32
Age turned Pro 21
Handed Right
Star sign Gemini
Height 5.9
Weight 181
Hair colour Brown
Marital status Married
No. of children 0
No. of siblings 3
Our predicted 2018 winner

According to our data, the golfer which most closely meets the criteria of a Masters champion is Thomas Pieters, who has an 85% compatibility with the average winner.

        % likely to win
1
Thomas Pieters 85%
2
Tommy Fleetwood 83%
3
Sergio García 82%
4
Dustin Johnson 80%
5
Paul Casey 80%
6
Marc Leishman 80%
7
Jordan Spieth 79%
8
Justin Rose 79%
9
Rory McIlroy 79%
10
Rickie Fowler 79%
Professional opinions

Thomas Pieters maybe isn’t the first name that comes to mind when you earmark potential Masters winners, but he clearly has the skill and potential to become a champion. He meets the criteria to do well at Augusta because he’s a very long, straight hitter. His world ranking has increased by nearly 1,000 places in the last four years, which shows how rapidly his game has developed. As an outsider, he’s definitely worth a punt.

In terms of other potential winners, it’s difficult to see past the likes of Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm. They’re not the top three in the world rankings for nothing. Dustin Johnson’s got what he needs to win in Augusta and he’s going into the Masters as a clear favourite.

Sources

Sources:
Wikipedia, Biography.com, augusta.com, golfstats.com, youtube.com, individual golf fan sites.

Methodology:

Overall
To determine what makes ‘A Masters Champion’ an average has been calculated across all previous Masters winners for each available metric.

2018 prediction
A list of the current favourite golfers to win the 2018 Masters was compiled.

There are 5 qualitative metrics for which we have applied a binary score of 0 or 1. If the golfers in 2018 favourites list matches the average they are given a score of 1, if not, a score of 0.

There are also 11 quantitative metrics for which we have applied a score depending on how close the 2018 favourites are to the average.

The scores for each category are then summed to give a total rating out of 16 categories for each player.

In order to achieve an overall prediction in terms of a percentage an average of the 16 ratings has been taken.

Disclaimer:
All visualisations based on data available online (March 2018).

GIR, Fairways Hit, Avg. drive and No. of Putts data only available since 1980.

2018 Masters winner prediction based on methodology utilising available data.