2018 Predictions

Who will hold their nerve at Carnoustie’s notoriously challenging 18th hole and win the Claret Jug in 2018? We’ve made our prediction by benchmarking the favourites for this year’s tournament against the average statistics of an Open winner.

According to our data, the golfer which most closely meets the criteria of an Open champion is Dustin Johnson, who has 81% compatibility with the average winner.

What makes an Open Champion?

SCORE
276
vs PAR
-9
MARGIN OF VICTORY
3
1
Eagles
17
Birdies
45
Pars
9
Bogeys
0
Double Bogeys
PERFORMANCE STATS
Avg. Drive 298.2 yds
Fairways Hit 64%
GIR 70%
No. of Putts 116
PERSONAL STATS
Age (when won) 33
Age turned Pro 21
Handed Right
Star sign Virgo
Height 5.9
Weight 187
Hair colour Brown
Marital status Married
No. of children 3
No. of siblings 2
Our predicted 2018 winner
        % likely to win
1
Dustin Johnson 81%
2
Justin Rose 79%
3
Adam Scott 76%
4
Henrik Stenson 75%
5
Jason Day 75%
6
Bubba Watson 73%
7
Tiger Woods 73%
8
Tommy Fleetwood 69%
9
Paul Casey 64%
10
Rickie Fowler 59%
Professional opinions

Dustin Johnson is a good bet to win whenever he plays. He’s such a strong golfer who has the power in his game to win on any course in any conditions. Dustin has been unlucky to win The Open on numerous occasions, most recently at St Andrews in 2015.

He knows how to play seaside courses and he’s got the perfect game for them. His wedge play and putting is much better these days, so he’s definitely a strong contender.

Dustin Johnson would be a worthy winner of The Open and he’s got a fantastic chance of being crowned champion. He’s challenged at previous Opens – he held his own until late on at St Georges and he was right in contention at St Andrews.

When he’s on top form, he can overpower golf courses like virtually no other player. His wedge play and approach play have improved massively, so I think he’s got a very good chance.

Sources

Sources:
Wikipedia, Biography.com, theopen.com, golfstats.com, youtube.com, gettyimages.co.uk, individual golf fan sites.

Methodology:

Overall
To determine what makes ‘An Open Champion’ an average has been calculated across all previous Open winners for each available metric.

2018 prediction
A list of the current favourite golfers to win the 2018 Open was compiled.

There are 5 qualitative metrics for which we have applied a binary score of 0 or 1. If the golfers in 2018 favourites list matches the average they are given a score of 1, if not, a score of 0.
There are also 11 quantitative metrics for which we have applied a score depending on how close the 2018 favourites are to the average.
The scores for each category are then summed to give a total rating out of 16 categories for each player.
In order to achieve an overall prediction in terms of a percentage an average of the 16 ratings has been taken.

Disclaimer:
All visualisations based on data available online (June 2018).
GIR, Fairways Hit, Avg. drive and No. of Putts data only available since 1999.
2018 Open winner prediction based on methodology utilising available data.